INDEX & GOLD MAX-PAIN TRACKING · we compute it ourselves
positioning layer on the reversion + gold books · does the max-pain magnet + P/C skew predict the pin? ·
captured today: 5/7 · updated 15:38:39 · auto-refresh 60s
THREE-TIER VERDICT · pre-registered 2026-07-26 · CALM→butterfly · MILD→condor · DRIVER→skip · PAPER-SCORED, no real money until ≥15 sessions · latest 2026-09-30SPY SKIP ⚠ STALE · no expiry today 2026-09-30 16:34 · spot 768.79 · pin 761.00 / flow 767.00 · dist 1.01% · EM 0.30% · vol/OI 1.20 · p/c 0.87 · VIX1D 9.18
stand aside
pin out of reach (dist 1.01% > 0.8xEM 0.30%)
QQQ SKIP ⚠ STALE · no expiry today 2026-09-30 16:34 · spot 744.32 · pin 735.00 / flow 742.00 · dist 1.25% · EM 0.48% · vol/OI 1.91 · p/c 0.99 · VIX1D 9.18
stand aside
pin out of reach (dist 1.25% > 0.8xEM 0.48%); EM 0.48% > 1.3x median 0.36%
IWM SKIP ⚠ STALE · no expiry today 2026-09-30 16:34 · spot 279.95 · pin 285.00 / flow 280.00 · dist 1.80% · EM 0.37% · vol/OI 0.61 · p/c 0.91 · VIX1D 9.18
stand aside
pin out of reach (dist 1.80% > 0.8xEM 0.37%)
GLD MILD->CONDOR ⚠ STALE · no expiry today 2026-09-30 16:34 · spot 381.46 · pin 381.00 / flow 382.00 · dist 0.12% · EM 0.43% · vol/OI 0.21 · p/c 0.62 · VIX1D 9.18
condor plateau 382.00 – 381.00, wings ~±0.4% (1×EM)
EM 0.43%, dist 0.12%
GEX GO/NO-GO & PROPOSED STRIKES (new principles) · static GEX from 2026-08-03 morning OI · regime = the predictive go/no-go, max pain = the anchor, walls/flip = supportingIWM RUN Mon/Wed/Fri · spot 277.89
stand aside — no strike proposed
corridor: put wall 278 → call wall 280 · gamma flip 280.95 (below = run-side) · NO TRADE — run regime (dealers amplify)
SPY RUN daily · spot 762.63
stand aside — no strike proposed
corridor: put wall 765 → call wall 765 · gamma flip 765.68 (below = run-side) · NO TRADE — run regime (dealers amplify)
same-day flow: 761P(29k,3x) 762P(41k,3x) 764P(50k,4x) 765C(61k,3x) 765P(112k,4x) 766C(58k,4x)
QQQ RUN daily · spot 739.77
stand aside — no strike proposed
corridor: put wall 740 → call wall 745 · gamma flip 741.99 (below = run-side) · NO TRADE — run regime (dealers amplify)
same-day flow: 737P(21k,3x) 741C(21k,4x) 741P(28k,6x) 742C(34k,5x) 742P(58k,9x) 743C(62k,8x)
GLD RUN Mon/Wed/Fri · spot 380.84
stand aside — no strike proposed
corridor: put wall 380 → call wall 385 · gamma flip 384.65 (below = run-side) · NO TRADE — run regime (dealers amplify)
WHEN TO PUT THE TRADE ON · validated timing: OCC OI lands ~11:30, GEX map runs 12:38, US opens 14:30 (avoid first 30m), spreads settle ~15:00, close 21:00| book | expiries | entry rule |
|---|
| daily (SPY/QQQ) | expiry EVERY weekday | enter SAME DAY 15:00–16:30 BST (US open +30m–2h; spreads settled) — only if morning GEX = PIN |
| Mon/Wed/Fri (IWM/GLD) | expiries Mon, Wed, Fri | enter EXPIRY DAY 15:00–16:30 BST; for REAL money on IG prefer the evening BEFORE (18:00–21:00) — short middles still have value (0DTE middles bid 0 on IG) |
| weekly MSTR (Fri) | one expiry, Friday | BTC must be quiet + GEX = PIN; enter Thu 18:00–21:00 BST (day-before: better spreads) or Fri 15:00–16:30 |
go/no-go ALWAYS applies: no pin trade on a RUN-regime morning.
WAS OUR STRIKE CLOSE? · strike = that day's max pain · CLOSE = settle within ±0.5% (±0.3% = bullseye) · last 10: 3/10 close| expiry | book | strike | settle | dist | verdict |
|---|
| 2026-09-30 | US500 daily | 7645 | 7651.54 | +0.086% | CLOSE ✓ (bullseye) |
| 2026-09-30 | US30 | 512 | 508.55 | -0.674% | MISS ✗ |
| 2026-09-30 | US2000 Mon/Wed/Fri | 2910 | 2796.86 | -3.888% | MISS ✗ |
| 2026-09-30 | NAS100 daily | 30000 | 30408.5 | +1.362% | MISS ✗ |
| 2026-09-30 | GOLD Mon/Wed/Fri | 383 | 380.84 | -0.564% | MISS ✗ |
| 2026-09-29 | US500 daily | 7700 | 7670.84 | -0.379% | CLOSE ✓ |
| 2026-09-29 | US2000 Mon/Wed/Fri | 2870 | 2807.92 | -2.163% | MISS ✗ |
| 2026-09-29 | NAS100 daily | 30250 | 30339.3 | +0.295% | CLOSE ✓ (bullseye) |
| 2026-09-29 | GOLD Mon/Wed/Fri | 394 | 382.89 | -2.820% | MISS ✗ |
| 2026-09-28 | US500 daily | 7725 | 7683.69 | -0.535% | MISS ✗ |
GAMMA-TRACK FLIES daily indices · M/W/F gold · Alpaca + free greeksGOLD GLD OPEN · exp 2026-10-12fly 370/378/386 · cost $3.58 · max $4.42 if pins 378 · unreal $-1.04 · gamma PIN 88.0M · walls 387.0/384.0
US500 SPY OPEN · exp 2026-10-12fly 763/775/787 · cost $6.90 · max $5.10 if pins 775 · unreal $+0.30 · gamma PIN 1425.8M · walls 780.0/782.0
NAS100 QQQ OPEN · exp 2026-10-12fly 743/754/765 · cost $4.31 · max $6.69 if pins 754 · unreal $+1.99 · gamma PIN 236.9M · walls 755.0/742.0
US2000 IWM OPEN · exp 2026-10-12fly 274/280/286 · cost $2.88 · max $3.12 if pins 280 · unreal $+1.14 · gamma PIN 41.6M · walls 280.0/283.0
US30 DIA OPEN · exp 2026-10-16fly 510/518/526 · cost $2.30 · max $5.70 if pins 518 · unreal $+0.80 · gamma PIN 102.6M · walls 518.0/525.0
US30 DIA OPEN · exp 2026-10-16fly 506/514/522 · cost $2.76 · max $5.24 if pins 518 · unreal $+0.30 · gamma PIN 102.6M · walls 518.0/525.0
GOLD GLD OPEN · exp 2026-10-12fly 379/387/395 · cost $4.32 · max $3.68 if pins 378 · unreal $+0.00 · gamma PIN 88.0M · walls 387.0/384.0
US30 exp 2026-10-09 SCORED settle 516.05 vs mp 516 (miss 0.01%) · P&L $+5.64
US2000 exp 2026-10-09 SCORED settle 278.99 vs mp 282 (miss 1.07%) · P&L $+0.73
NAS100 exp 2026-10-09 SCORED settle 751.17 vs mp 750 (miss 0.16%) · P&L $+7.36
US500 exp 2026-10-09 SCORED settle 778.60 vs mp 772 (miss 0.85%) · P&L $+0.21
GOLD exp 2026-10-09 SCORED settle 384.59 vs mp 383 (miss 0.42%) · P&L $+4.15
US2000 exp 2026-10-08 SCORED settle 277.81 vs mp 281 (miss 1.14%) · P&L $-0.56
NAS100 exp 2026-10-08 SCORED settle 748.35 vs mp 749 (miss 0.09%) · P&L $+7.55
US500 exp 2026-10-08 SCORED settle 774.30 vs mp 770 (miss 0.56%) · P&L $+3.74
FLEX-CENTER FLIES pin out of reach -> re-center on spot ±0.5% drift · Jeff's flex thesis · scored 65/105 greenUS30 DIA FLEX UP · exp 2026-10-16fly 506/514/522 · cost $2.76 · max $5.24 if settles ~514.13 (pin 518 was 1.26% away -- ignored) · unreal $+0.30
GOLD GLD FLEX UP · exp 2026-10-12fly 379/387/395 · cost $4.32 · max $3.68 if settles ~386.51 (pin 378 was -1.71% away -- ignored) · unreal $+0.00
US30 exp 2026-10-09 SCORED settle 516.05 vs flex-center 511.04 (pin was 1.47% away) · P&L $+0.25
US2000 exp 2026-10-09 SCORED settle 278.99 vs flex-center 276.28 (pin was 1.56% away) · P&L $+0.13
NAS100 exp 2026-10-09 SCORED settle 751.17 vs flex-center 754.05 (pin was -1.03% away) · P&L $+3.59
GOLD exp 2026-10-09 SCORED settle 384.59 vs flex-center 377.73 (pin was 1.9% away) · P&L $-2.31
NAS100 exp 2026-10-08 SCORED settle 748.35 vs flex-center 756.3 (pin was -1.46% away) · P&L $-1.25
US500 exp 2026-10-08 SCORED settle 774.30 vs flex-center 775.36 (pin was -1.19% away) · P&L $+5.28
GOLD exp 2026-10-08 SCORED settle 378.63 vs flex-center 379.92 (pin was 2.14% away) · P&L $+2.88
US2000 exp 2026-10-07 SCORED settle 277.69 vs flex-center 284.53 (pin was -1.1% away) · P&L $-2.97
PAPER BUTTERFLIES paper · max-pain flies · 1.5% wings (indices) / 2% (gold) · figures per-share, ×100 per contractUS2000 ^RUT CLOSED · exp 2026-07-24settle 2940.16 · pinned closer to friday_mp (Mon 2965=0.84% vs Fri 2955=0.5%)
held P&L $+13.41/sh · best-close $19.35/sh
US500 ^SPX CLOSED · exp 2026-07-24settle 7408.30 · pinned closer to friday_mp (Mon 7500=1.22% vs Fri 7470=0.83%)
held P&L $-22.50/sh · best-close $16.45/sh
GOLD GLD CLOSED · exp 2026-07-24settle 371.53 · pinned closer to tie (Mon 375=0.93% vs Fri 375=0.93%)
held P&L $+1.71/sh · best-close $1.27/sh
US30 DIA CLOSED · exp 2026-07-24settle 516.16 · pinned closer to friday_mp (Mon 522=1.21% vs Fri 522=1.12%)
held P&L $-1.23/sh · best-close $1.6/sh
US500 ^SPX strong · last 2026-10-11
near · 2026-10-12 spot 7,811.54 MAX PAIN 7,755.00 -0.7% to pin P/C 1.327 OI c86,744/p115,138
friday · 2026-10-16 spot 7,811.54 MAX PAIN 7,575.00 -3.0% to pin P/C 1.555 OI c981,390/p1,526,096
NAS100 ^NDX strong · last 2026-10-11
near · 2026-10-12 spot 30,883.15 MAX PAIN 30,750.00 -0.4% to pin P/C 1.079 OI c1,595/p1,721
friday · 2026-10-16 spot 30,883.15 MAX PAIN 29,475.00 -4.6% to pin P/C 1.588 OI c11,954/p18,988
US2000 ^RUT strong · last 2026-10-11
near · 2026-10-12 spot 2,806.98 MAX PAIN 2,825.00 +0.6% to pin P/C 2.089 OI c1,520/p3,176
friday · 2026-10-16 spot 2,806.98 MAX PAIN 2,900.00 +3.3% to pin P/C 1.172 OI c65,153/p76,349
US30 DIA good · last 2026-10-11
near · 2026-10-16 spot 516.05 MAX PAIN 515.00 -0.2% to pin P/C 0.557 OI c55,986/p31,173
GOLD GLD partial · last 2026-10-11
near · 2026-10-12 spot 384.59 MAX PAIN 378.00 -1.7% to pin P/C 0.348 OI c11,997/p4,170
friday · 2026-10-16 spot 384.59 MAX PAIN 395.00 +2.7% to pin P/C 0.619 OI c331,677/p205,260
GER40 DAX weak proxy
awaiting first clean pull (yfinance OI stale — daemon retrying; best odds early morning)
JPN225 EWJ weak proxy · last 2026-10-10
near · 2026-10-16 spot 97.86 MAX PAIN 98.00 +0.1% to pin P/C 4.239 OI c4,160/p17,633
SOURCES: cash indices ^SPX/^NDX/^RUT (match OptionCharts + CFD scale) · US30 DIA · GOLD GLD
(partial — most gold options are COMEX futures, not free) · GER40/JPN225 are WEAK ETF proxies (thin, broad-basket,
not the real index — Eurex/Osaka options are paid). Ticker shown per book. yfinance OI is once-daily & flaky;
the daemon captures the first clean pull each day.